November 8, 2006

Lower prices for gasoline and heating oil provided good news yesterday for the short term, but it was tempered by an ominous warning from an international energy advisory body: Find alternatives to petroleum or prepare for $100-a-barrel oil in the next 25 years.

Regular unleaded gasoline averaged $2.293 a gallon yesterday on Long Island, down by a fraction of a cent from a week earlier, according to the American Automobile Association. That represented a decline of 9 cents from a month earlier and 28.2 cents from a year earlier.

The Web site longisland gasprices.com, which depends on motorists' reports, listed regular unleaded as low as $2.15 a gallon yesterday afternoon at eight stations handling various brands, six of them in Nassau County and two in Central Islip.

Some analysts think prices will rise as driving increases for Thanksgiving visits and holiday-related shopping. "We can expect now for gasoline prices to slowly drift higher," said Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, an industry newsletter published in Villanova, Pa.

Heating oil fell again, too, on Long Island, by 1.3 cents to an average of $2.573 a gallon on Monday in a survey of full-service dealers by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. That's the lowest the average has been since mid-August of last year.

Schork said that if government forecasts for a mild winter are correct, prices probably won't rise much further. "You tend to see your biggest spikes and price gains prior to the start of the season," he said.

However, a number of private weather forecasters are calling for a colder than normal winter for the Northeast, contradicting government forecasts and raising the possibility of higher heating fuel prices.

In futures trading yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, heating oil fell 3.81 cents to $1.68, a wholesale price, as forecasters predicted warmer weather for the next week in the Northeast. Crude oil for December delivery fell $1.09 to close at $58.93 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency, based in Paris, warned that global energy needs will surge by 53 percent in the next quarter century due mostly to emerging economies in such countries as India and China and that crude oil prices could top $100 a barrel by 2030. It called for more conservation and development of alternatives like biofuels.

"On current trends, we are on course for a dirty, expensive and unsustainable energy future," IEA executive director Claude Mandil was quoted by wire services as saying.

Fuel figures

Average cost for one gallon of unleaded regular and one gallon of heating oil on Long Island.

Gasoline Heating oil

Dec. 2005 $2.383 $2.671

July 2006 $3.273 $2.826

Oct. 2006 $2.452 $2.679

Nov. 2006 $2.293 $2.573

SOURCE: AAA NY; NEW YORK STATE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY